Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Contradictory reporting delaying resolution
AI updated 6/26/2026, 11:00:38 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
44%
ORYN Consensus
43%
Signal Score
-1.0
Opportunity
0.7
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -100.0¢
Entry: 41-47
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual speaks with Donald Trump between July 1 and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Speaking is defined as any verbal interaction between the listed individual and Donald Trump, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call. The resolution source will be credible media reporting. However, in the absence of definitive or in the case of contradictory media reporting, statements by either of the specified individuals or their official representatives will also be considered. Statements by the specified individuals or their official representatives will only be considered conclusive if the claims explicitly, or in context unambiguously, indicate that a qualifying talk occurred within the specified timeframe and took place via verbal communication, and provided that such claims are not contradicted by the other specified individual, their representatives, or credible media reporting by the end of the third calendar date (ET) following the statement in question. This market will resolve at the earlier of i) a qualifying verbal interaction being confirmed under the above rules or ii) 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day following this market's above-specified timeframe. If the date and time of a qualifying talk cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day following this market's above-specified timeframe, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market suggests a 44% probability of Donald Trump speaking with Vladimir Putin in July 2026, reflecting moderate uncertainty influenced by geopolitical tensions and historical precedents. Resolution hinges on credible media reporting or official statements within a tight timeframe.
Trump may engage Putin to discuss geopolitical issues such as Ukraine, Middle East conflicts, or sanctions relief, leveraging his transactional approach to diplomacy. A potential easing of U.S.-Russia tensions or shared interests in global stability could prompt direct communication.
Ongoing U.S.-Russia hostility, domestic political constraints in the U.S., or Putin's preference for indirect channels (e.g., intermediaries) may prevent direct talks. Historical precedents show limited high-level engagement under current administrations.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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