Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Exclusion of written mentions reduces qualifying events significantly
AI updated 7/2/2026, 10:20:54 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| omniroute | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 30% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
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Trump's speech style is unpredictable and can be influenced by current events; therefore, it is related to global tensions, which can be reflected in markets such as Israel's potential strike on Yemen, North America's FIFA World Cup chances, and cryptocurrency market fluctuations. The other related markets are also unpredictable and can be influenced by global events, as seen in the potential restoration of Claude Fable 5 for US customers, the possibility of Bitcoin dipping to $40,000, and the potential for Bitcoin to reach $77,500.
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,445,122
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
HIGH
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
27d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between July 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible. Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
This market bets on whether Donald Trump will verbally say 'Elephant' in July 2026. At 50%, the market reflects maximum uncertainty, with potential for movement based on Trump's speaking schedule and news cycles. The term could relate to the Republican Party symbol or a literal elephant, but Trump's unpredictable speech patterns make this a coin flip.
Trump frequently uses animal metaphors and might reference the 'elephant in the room' or the GOP symbol during rallies or interviews. With a month-long window and multiple public appearances likely, the odds of an offhand mention are plausible, especially if media or opponents frame him as the party's elephant.
Trump may avoid the term entirely, as it is not a staple of his vocabulary. The market's 50% price suggests no strong directional edge, and his focus on other topics (e.g., legal issues, policy) could crowd out any mention. Written posts (e.g., Truth Social) are excluded, limiting his primary communication channel.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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