This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual meets with Donald Trump between July 1 and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both the listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Key risk: Escalating U.S.-Russia hostilities
AI updated 6/27/2026, 1:15:32 AM
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual meets with Donald Trump between July 1 and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both the listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Crowd Consensus
15%
ORYN Consensus
12%
Signal Score
-3.0
Opportunity
2.5
Graph Relationships
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The prediction market currently assigns a 16% probability to a Trump-Putin meeting in July 2026, reflecting low but non-zero expectations. Geopolitical tensions and domestic U.S. constraints significantly reduce the likelihood of such an encounter.
A meeting could occur if diplomatic thawing efforts accelerate, particularly if both leaders seek to address shared interests like North Korea or Ukraine stabilization. Trump’s stated openness to dialogue with Putin and potential post-election shifts in U.S. foreign policy could facilitate negotiations.
High geopolitical tensions, U.S. sanctions, and bipartisan opposition to Putin in Washington make a meeting unlikely. Trump’s legal and political vulnerabilities further reduce incentives for high-profile diplomacy with Putin during his potential second term.
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Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in July 2026? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 15% while ORYN AI estimates 12%.
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