Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Uncertainty over Trump's travel and security arrangements
Calibrated 100% · raw 130% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/27/2026, 4:00:29 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
4%
ORYN Consensus
5%
Signal Score
+1.3
Opportunity
1.1
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 130.0¢
Entry: 1-7
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
55 points
This market will resolve to the number of 2026 FIFA World Cup matches Donald Trump attends in person . If the world cup has not been completed by August 31, this market will resolve according to the number of games he has attended up to that point. Attending the match is defined as being in physical attendance during any part of the match. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market assigns a low 3.60% probability to Donald Trump attending zero FIFA World Cup 2026 matches in person. Given Trump's historical engagement with high-profile events and his potential political motivations, this outcome appears unlikely.
Trump may avoid the World Cup entirely due to logistical challenges, security concerns, or prioritization of domestic political events. His past disinterest in soccer (outside of political symbolism) and potential scheduling conflicts with the U.S. election cycle could further reduce attendance likelihood.
Trump could attend one or more matches to leverage the event for political optics, particularly if the tournament is held in the U.S. or if he seeks international exposure ahead of the 2026 election. His presence at past high-profile sporting events (e.g., UFC, boxing) suggests a potential for attendance.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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