This market will resolve to the number of 2026 FIFA World Cup matches Donald Trump attends in person . If the world cup has not been completed by August 31, this market will resolve according to the number of games he has attended up to that point. Attending the match is defined as being in physical attendance during any part of the match. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Key risk: Uncertainty over Trump's travel and security arrangements
Calibrated 100% · raw 125% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/27/2026, 4:00:29 PM
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
This market will resolve to the number of 2026 FIFA World Cup matches Donald Trump attends in person . If the world cup has not been completed by August 31, this market will resolve according to the number of games he has attended up to that point. Attending the match is defined as being in physical attendance during any part of the match. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Crowd Consensus
4%
ORYN Consensus
5%
Signal Score
+1.3
Opportunity
1.1
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market assigns a low 3.60% probability to Donald Trump attending zero FIFA World Cup 2026 matches in person. Given Trump's historical engagement with high-profile events and his potential political motivations, this outcome appears unlikely.
Trump may avoid the World Cup entirely due to logistical challenges, security concerns, or prioritization of domestic political events. His past disinterest in soccer (outside of political symbolism) and potential scheduling conflicts with the U.S. election cycle could further reduce attendance likelihood.
Trump could attend one or more matches to leverage the event for political optics, particularly if the tournament is held in the U.S. or if he seeks international exposure ahead of the 2026 election. His presence at past high-profile sporting events (e.g., UFC, boxing) suggests a potential for attendance.
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Will Trump attend 0 World Cup matches? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 3.8% while ORYN AI estimates 5%.
ORYN aggregates forecasting intelligence across Asia-focused categories including crypto, AI, cricket, startups, and global events.
