This market will resolve according to how much "Toy Story 5" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (June 26 - June 28) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by July 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Key risk: Potential studio adjustments to reported box office figures
AI updated 6/27/2026, 11:30:28 PM
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
This market will resolve according to how much "Toy Story 5" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (June 26 - June 28) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by July 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
0%
Signal Score
+0.1
Opportunity
0.0
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The prediction market for 'Toy Story 5' second weekend box office exceeding $77M is highly unlikely, with a current probability of 0.40%. Historical performance of Pixar sequels suggests a strong opening weekend followed by a significant drop in the second weekend.
A bullish outcome could occur if 'Toy Story 5' experiences an exceptionally strong word-of-mouth effect, cultural phenomenon status, or if it benefits from a lack of major competing blockbusters during the June 26-28 weekend. Strong international performance could also buoy domestic figures.
The bear case is supported by Pixar's declining second-weekend drop rates in recent years (e.g., 'Incredibles 2' fell 67% in its second weekend). Competing family films or poor critical reception could further accelerate the decline, making $77M a stretch.
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Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 77m? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 0.4% while ORYN AI estimates 0.4%.
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