Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: underestimation of aftershock risks
Calibrated 100% · raw 500% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/28/2026, 6:45:15 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
60%
ORYN Consensus
65%
Signal Score
+5.0
Opportunity
3.8
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,016,975
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 500.0¢
Entry: 57-63
—
Resolution
13h
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
13 points
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 22, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market indicates a 65% probability of observing more than 11 earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher globally during the specified week in June 2026. Historical USGS data suggests this is a plausible but not guaranteed outcome.
A bullish scenario could unfold if heightened tectonic activity, aftershocks from recent major quakes, or seasonal patterns (e.g., monsoon-related stress) increase seismic events. The market's 65% probability aligns with the average weekly global earthquake rate of ~15 events ≥5.5, supporting the bull case.
A bearish outcome would require an unusually quiet week with fewer than 11 qualifying earthquakes, potentially due to temporary lulls in seismic activity or data reporting delays. The 35% implied probability reflects historical variability, where weekly counts can dip below 10.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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