Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Underreporting of earthquakes in remote regions
Calibrated 100% · raw 1870% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/26/2026, 4:31:00 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 22% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
25%
ORYN Consensus
43%
Signal Score
+18.7
Opportunity
14.6
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 1870.0¢
Entry: 22-28
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
11
Price history
49 points
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 22, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market predicts a 43.35% probability of exactly 5 earthquakes (magnitude ≥6.5) occurring globally between June 22-28, 2026, based on USGS data. Historical averages and seismic activity patterns suggest this is a plausible but not highly likely outcome.
Seismic activity could exceed expectations due to aftershocks from a major earthquake in a high-risk region (e.g., Pacific Ring of Fire) or a new significant event. Increased monitoring or reporting delays might temporarily inflate counts, skewing results toward the target.
A quieter-than-average period in seismic activity could result in fewer than 5 qualifying earthquakes. Delays in USGS reporting or magnitude revisions could undercount qualifying events, reducing the likelihood of resolution at exactly 5.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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