Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Declining MMR vaccination rates in certain states or demographics
AI updated 6/30/2026, 6:34:30 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 50% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,086,493
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
183d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market suggests an even 50% probability of at least 3,500 measles cases in the U.S. by 2026, reflecting uncertainty driven by fluctuating vaccination rates, global travel patterns, and public health policy dynamics. Historical trends and current outbreak patterns provide mixed signals, leaving the outcome highly contingent on near-term developments.
A resurgence of measles in the U.S. by 2026 is plausible due to declining vaccination rates, waning herd immunity, and increased international travel reintroducing the virus. Antivaccine sentiment and political resistance to public health mandates could exacerbate outbreaks, particularly in under-immunized communities.
The bear case assumes sustained high vaccination coverage, effective public health interventions, and limited importations of measles, keeping case counts below 3,500. Improved surveillance, outbreak response, and global measles elimination efforts may further suppress transmission, reducing the likelihood of a major resurgence.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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