Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Incomplete or delayed CDC case reporting
AI updated 6/29/2026, 12:00:25 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,331,940
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 0-4
—
Resolution
20h
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
15 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for 2300+ U.S. measles cases by June 30, 2026, reflects a low probability (0.60%) event with minimal historical precedent. Current trends suggest sustained low incidence, but potential outbreaks could alter projections.
A bullish scenario could emerge if vaccine hesitancy accelerates, leading to localized outbreaks in under-vaccinated communities. International travel resurgence or waning immunity in adults may also contribute to case surges. CDC reporting delays or methodological changes could temporarily inflate case counts.
The bear case hinges on sustained high vaccination rates, robust public health interventions, and no major antigenic shifts in measles strains. Herd immunity thresholds (92-95%) likely prevent widespread transmission, and recent trends show declining cases post-2020.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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