Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Partisan polarization over defense spending
Calibrated 100% · raw 200% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/1/2026, 9:49:26 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 22% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
52%
Signal Score
+2.0
Opportunity
1.3
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 200.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
6
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2026 by July 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying bill does not need to pass as a standalone bill or be titled exactly as above, but it must set forth policies and authorities for Fiscal Year 2026 for Department of Defense programs and activities. The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market for US House passage of the NDAA by July 31, 2026, is evenly split at 50%, reflecting significant uncertainty due to political polarization and procedural hurdles. The outcome hinges on bipartisan negotiations and timing constraints, with historical precedent suggesting moderate optimism but no guarantees.
The NDAA has historically enjoyed bipartisan support, with 60 consecutive years of passage, suggesting strong institutional momentum. If defense priorities align with budgetary constraints and leadership prioritizes compromise, the bill could pass by the deadline. Recent negotiations on Ukraine aid and Pentagon funding may also facilitate a deal.
Heightened partisan divisions, particularly on defense spending and foreign policy, could derail negotiations. If the House leadership faces internal challenges or the Senate introduces unrelated amendments, the NDAA may miss the deadline. Past delays (e.g., 2023 shutdown) demonstrate vulnerability to procedural gridlock.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
ORYN does not hold funds or execute trades. You will be redirected to a third-party regulated venue.
No comments yet.
