Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Unexpected inflation spikes
AI updated 7/1/2026, 5:46:21 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 45% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
70%
ORYN Consensus
71%
Signal Score
+0.5
Opportunity
0.4
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,553,545
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 50.0¢
Entry: 67-73
—
Resolution
33d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
6 points
This market will resolve according to the change in the policy repo rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee’s August meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of India after its meeting scheduled for August 5, 2026. This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy statement for their August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. The statement will be made available here: https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx. If no decision on the policy repo rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market currently assigns a 70.50% probability that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will maintain the policy repo rate unchanged after the August 2026 meeting. This reflects a strong market consensus favoring stability in monetary policy amid ongoing economic conditions.
India's inflation may continue to ease toward the RBI's target range, reducing pressure to hike rates. Additionally, global economic uncertainty could prompt the RBI to adopt a cautious stance, prioritizing growth over inflation. A stable repo rate would support domestic credit markets and liquidity conditions.
Persistent inflationary pressures, particularly from food or fuel prices, could force the RBI to signal or implement a rate hike to maintain price stability. Geopolitical risks or supply chain disruptions might also contribute to inflationary risks, reducing the likelihood of a 'no change' outcome.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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