Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Scandal or corruption allegations
AI updated 6/30/2026, 1:00:19 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 50% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
94%
ORYN Consensus
94%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,748,278
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 90-97
—
Resolution
125d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
6 points
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SC-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market heavily favors a Republican win in SC-03 with a 93.50% probability, reflecting strong incumbent or partisan advantages. Historical voting patterns and recent electoral trends in South Carolina's 3rd district support this outcome.
Republican incumbency advantage and strong partisan lean of SC-03 (R+22 in 2020) significantly favor the GOP. Local political dynamics, fundraising, and redistricting (if applicable) may further solidify Republican control.
Unforeseen scandals, demographic shifts, or a high-turnout Democratic wave could upset the Republican advantage. Competitive primary challenges or third-party candidates might also fragment the vote.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
No direct venue links for this market. ORYN exclusive markets are intelligence-only.
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