Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Volatility in Binance's reported price due to low liquidity or manipulation risks
Calibrated 100% · raw 205% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/1/2026, 6:45:25 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
2%
ORYN Consensus
4%
Signal Score
+2.0
Opportunity
1.7
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 210.0¢
Entry: 0-5
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
6
Price history
90 points
This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market indicates a low 4.00% probability that Ethereum's price will fall between $1,300 and $1,400 on July 7, 2024, based on Binance's 1-minute candle closing price at 12:00 ET. The resolution is highly dependent on Binance's reported price, excluding other exchanges or trading pairs.
Ethereum could surge into the $1,300-$1,400 range if there is a significant bullish catalyst, such as a major institutional adoption announcement, a favorable regulatory decision, or a strong upward trend in the broader crypto market. Short-term speculation or a sudden influx of buying pressure could also push the price into this range.
The price is unlikely to reach the $1,300-$1,400 range if Ethereum faces selling pressure due to macroeconomic headwinds, regulatory crackdowns, or a broader crypto market downturn. Persistent bearish sentiment or a lack of positive catalysts could keep the price below this threshold.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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