Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Regulatory or ethical roadblocks
AI updated 6/30/2026, 8:00:19 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 47% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
93%
ORYN Consensus
93%
Signal Score
+0.1
Opportunity
0.1
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,857,546
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 10.0¢
Entry: 90-96
—
Resolution
31d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
5 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 4.7, Claude Sonnet 5.0, Sonnet 5, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market overwhelmingly favors a 'Yes' resolution (93.05%), indicating strong confidence that Anthropic will release its next Claude Sonnet model by July 31, 2026. This reflects high anticipation for iterative advancements in Anthropic's Sonnet series, given the company's consistent release cadence and competitive positioning in AI.
Anthropic's track record of frequent Sonnet model updates (e.g., Sonnet 3.5 in mid-2024) and their focus on rapid iteration suggest high likelihood of a Sonnet 4.x or 5.0 release by mid-2026. Competitive pressure from rivals like OpenAI and Google DeepMind may accelerate development. Public accessibility is likely given Anthropic's open beta rollouts for prior models.
Delays could arise from unforeseen technical hurdles in scaling Sonnet models or Anthropic prioritizing other projects (e.g., Opus upgrades). Regulatory scrutiny or ethical concerns might slow releases. A shift in strategy toward non-Sonnet models (e.g., Haiku variants) could invalidate this market's criteria.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
ORYN does not hold funds or execute trades. You will be redirected to a third-party regulated venue.
No comments yet.