Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Model quality or safety issues delaying release
Calibrated 100% · raw 250% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/2/2026, 1:00:40 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 24% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
57%
ORYN Consensus
55%
Signal Score
-2.5
Opportunity
1.8
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -250.0¢
Entry: 54-60
—
Resolution
72d
Decision snapshots
4
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Haiku model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Claude Haiku refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Haiku. Qualifying models include Claude Haiku 4.6, Claude Haiku 5.0, Haiku 5, or any other Haiku variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Opus, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Haiku by Anthropic. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market assigns a 57.5% probability that Anthropic will release a publicly accessible 'Claude Haiku' model by October 31, 2026. This reflects moderate confidence given Anthropic's historical release cadence and competitive pressures in the AI sector.
Anthropic may accelerate Haiku's release to maintain market share against competitors like Mistral or xAI, leveraging Haiku's efficiency for broader adoption. A successful beta phase or strategic partnership could fast-track public availability before the deadline.
Anthropic might delay Haiku's release due to unresolved safety/alignment concerns, competitive focus on higher-margin models (e.g., Sonnet/Opus), or resource constraints from scaling other projects. Regulatory scrutiny could also slow deployment.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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