Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Uncertainty in Fed policy communication leading to mispricing
Calibrated 100% · raw 150% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/27/2026, 12:00:17 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 23% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
22%
ORYN Consensus
24%
Signal Score
+1.5
Opportunity
1.1
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 150.0¢
Entry: 19-25
—
Resolution
69d
Decision snapshots
10
Price history
39 points
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market assigns a 23.5% probability to a 25 bps Fed rate hike in October 2026, indicating a low but non-negligible expectation of tightening. Resolution hinges on FOMC decisions and macroeconomic conditions leading up to the meeting.
A 25 bps hike could occur if inflation remains stubbornly above the Fed's 2% target, labor market tightness persists, or geopolitical risks (e.g., energy shocks) drive commodity price spikes. Stronger-than-expected GDP growth or fiscal stimulus may also necessitate tighter policy to prevent overheating.
The Fed may hold rates steady or cut if inflation cools sharply, recession risks materialize, or financial stability concerns arise (e.g., banking sector stress). A dovish pivot could occur if the Fed prioritizes growth over inflation amid weakening economic data.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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