Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Unpredictable black swan events (e.g., exchange failures, regulatory shocks)
AI updated 7/1/2026, 4:31:23 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 41% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,491,972
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
30d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Volmex 1 minute candle for the Ethereum Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index (EVIV) between the creation of this market and 23:59 ET on the date specified in the title has a final "High" or "Low" value equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed value. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Volmex, specifically the Ethereum Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index "High" and "Low" values available at https://charts.volmex.finance/symbol/EVIV, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the data from the Ethereum Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index chart. Values from other exchanges or different indexes will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The Ethereum Volatility Index (EVIV) has a 50% probability of hitting 65 by July 31, reflecting balanced expectations of volatility. The outcome hinges on Ethereum's price movements and derivative market sentiment over the next three months.
Ethereum's price volatility could surge due to increased network activity, speculative trading, or macroeconomic uncertainty, driving the EVIV to 65. A sustained rally or correction in ETH/USD could trigger higher implied volatility as traders hedge positions.
Stable Ethereum prices, low trading volumes, or regulatory clarity reducing uncertainty could keep the EVIV below 65. A lack of major catalysts may suppress implied volatility, making the 65 threshold unlikely to be breached.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
No direct venue links for this market. ORYN exclusive markets are intelligence-only.
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