Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Black swan events triggering volatility spikes
AI updated 7/2/2026, 3:30:22 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 39% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
5%
ORYN Consensus
5%
Signal Score
+0.5
Opportunity
0.4
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,678,765
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 50.0¢
Entry: 2-8
—
Resolution
29d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
7 points
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Volmex 1 minute candle for the Ethereum Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index (EVIV) between the creation of this market and 23:59 ET on the date specified in the title has a final "High" or "Low" value equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed value. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Volmex, specifically the Ethereum Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index "High" and "Low" values available at https://charts.volmex.finance/symbol/EVIV, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the data from the Ethereum Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index chart. Values from other exchanges or different indexes will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The Ethereum Volatility Index (EVIV) has a low 4.5% probability of dipping to 35 by July 31, reflecting historically low implied volatility expectations for Ethereum over the next 30 days. The market's resolution hinges on one-minute candle highs/lows breaching the 35 threshold, which is an outlier given current volatility levels.
Ethereum's implied volatility could contract further due to stable market conditions, low trading volumes, or a prolonged consolidation phase. A lack of major catalysts (e.g., regulatory shocks, macroeconomic instability) may suppress volatility to extreme lows.
A sudden market shock—such as a regulatory crackdown, macroeconomic downturn, or Ethereum-specific event (e.g., major hack, staking issues)—could spike volatility, making a dip to 35 highly unlikely. Historical volatility spikes during past market events suggest this scenario is plausible.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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