Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Unexpected inflation acceleration
AI updated 6/26/2026, 1:07:00 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
91%
ORYN Consensus
90%
Signal Score
-0.5
Opportunity
0.4
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -50.0¢
Entry: 88-94
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
90 points
This market will resolve according to the change in the Bank of Israel Interest Rate resulting from the Bank of Israel’s July monetary policy decision, relative to the level it was prior to this decision. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Israel after its July 6, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Bank of Israel interest rate decision schedule: https://www.boi.org.il/en/economic-roles/monetary-policy/interest-rate-announcement-dates-2025-2026/# This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Israel's announcement of their July 6, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the Bank of Israel Interest Rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market strongly favors (90%) a decrease in the Bank of Israel Interest Rate following the July 2026 decision, reflecting expectations of monetary easing amid evolving economic conditions. Historical trends and policy signals suggest a high likelihood of a rate cut, though external shocks could alter this outcome.
Inflation pressures may ease further by July 2026, allowing the Bank of Israel to reduce rates to stimulate growth, particularly if GDP growth slows or global financial conditions deteriorate. A dovish shift in central bank rhetoric or geopolitical de-escalation could reinforce this trend.
Persistent inflation above the Bank of Israel’s target or unexpected inflation spikes could force the central bank to maintain or even raise rates, defying market expectations. A sudden surge in commodity prices or domestic fiscal imbalances might also delay or prevent a rate cut.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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