Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: ambiguity in finalized box office data
AI updated 7/1/2026, 8:16:15 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 44% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,569,678
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
4d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve according to how much "Supergirl" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (July 3 - July 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by July 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market for 'Supergirl' second weekend box office grossing over $23M is currently at 50%, indicating a balanced outlook with no clear consensus on performance. The resolution hinges on finalized box office data from authoritative sources like The Numbers and Box Office Mojo.
A bullish scenario would see 'Supergirl' maintaining strong audience engagement, possibly due to positive word-of-mouth, favorable reviews, or successful marketing campaigns targeting its core demographic. Strong previews on Thursday could also boost the weekend total, pushing it above $23M.
A bearish outcome could result from declining audience interest, negative critical reception, or competition from other major releases during the same weekend. Weak previews or poor marketing execution might also contribute to a lower-than-expected performance, falling below $23M.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
No direct venue links for this market. ORYN exclusive markets are intelligence-only.
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