Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Regulatory uncertainty or crackdowns on token launches
Calibrated 100% · raw 150% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/28/2026, 2:45:34 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
78%
ORYN Consensus
79%
Signal Score
+1.5
Opportunity
1.2
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
962,046
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 150.0¢
Entry: 74-80
—
Resolution
64d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
21 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Squid officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only an official token launched by Squid will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Squid (https://x.com/squidrouter), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market assigns a 79% probability that Squid will launch a token by August 31, 2026, reflecting strong market confidence in Squid's roadmap execution. The high probability aligns with Squid's active development and growing ecosystem.
Squid's ongoing infrastructure development, partnerships, and increasing user adoption support a token launch. The team's transparency and prior announcements suggest high likelihood of meeting the timeline. A successful token launch could enhance liquidity and protocol utility.
Delays in development, regulatory hurdles, or market downturns could push back the token launch beyond the deadline. Competitive pressure or lack of clear utility for the token may deter execution. Past delays in similar projects also pose a risk.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
ORYN does not hold funds or execute trades. You will be redirected to a third-party regulated venue.
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