Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Spencer Pratt's unpredictable public persona and potential for performative statements that may or may not meet resolution criteria
Calibrated 100% · raw 1200% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/29/2026, 1:45:38 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| gemini | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
18%
ORYN Consensus
30%
Signal Score
+12.0
Opportunity
8.4
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,350,638
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 1200.0¢
Entry: 14-20
—
Resolution
3d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
12 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Spencer Pratt concedes in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral elections by the listed date (Pacific Time). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A concession is defined as an unambiguous public statement that acknowledges that the candidate lost the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral elections, will not be the next Mayor of Los Angeles, or acknowledges the victory of an opponent. If a candidate makes these acknowledgements while also claiming that the election was rigged or that there was fraud, this will still qualify as a concession. Any public statement from this candidate written or verbal will qualify. Speeches in which this candidate begins speaking within the time frame of this market will qualify, even if their declaration of concession falls outside the market’s timeframe. Only public statements from this candidate will qualify. Reports of private conversations, e.g. if the candidate called the victor and conceded over the phone, will not count.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
This market assesses the likelihood of Spencer Pratt publicly stating by July 2, 2024, that he will not be the next Mayor of Los Angeles. The current market probability stands at 29.50%, indicating a low expectation that he will make such a definitive statement so far in advance of the 2026 election. The resolution hinges on a specific public declaration of non-candidacy or acknowledgement of not winning, rather than a traditional post-election concession.
The 'Yes' outcome is supported if Spencer Pratt decides to publicly withdraw from the nascent 2026 mayoral race by the deadline, perhaps to concentrate on his existing media career or other business ventures. His past political flirtations have often been characterized by a lack of sustained commitment, making an early declaration of non-participation plausible. He might also seek to clarify his intentions early to avoid prolonged speculation.
The 'No' outcome is more likely if Spencer Pratt chooses to maintain ambiguity regarding his 2026 mayoral aspirations, potentially to leverage the ongoing public attention. He might genuinely be exploring a run and thus would not make a definitive 'will not be mayor' statement by July 2nd, preferring to keep his options open. A lack of any public statement on the matter would also resolve to 'No'.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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