Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Injuries to critical players (e.g., Rodri, Morata)
AI updated 6/30/2026, 10:03:10 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 24% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
83%
ORYN Consensus
83%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 80-86
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
13 points
This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed team reaches the 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 16. If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to advance to the 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 16 (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after July 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 16 matchup has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
Spain has an 82.5% probability of reaching the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, indicating strong market confidence in their qualification prospects. Historical performance, squad depth, and favorable draw scenarios are primary drivers supporting this outlook.
Spain's strong squad depth, tactical flexibility, and recent form under Luis de la Fuente position them well for World Cup qualification. The expanded 48-team format increases the likelihood of advancing from the group stage, while Spain's history of deep tournament runs (e.g., 2010 winner, 2022 quarterfinalist) supports their chances.
Spain faces potential challenges from rising European competitors (e.g., France, Germany) and unpredictable group-stage opponents. Injuries to key players or tactical missteps could derail their campaign, while the expanded format may dilute the quality of opponents, making qualification less certain.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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