Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Increased tournament competitiveness
AI updated 6/27/2026, 7:34:30 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 24% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
26%
ORYN Consensus
26%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 22-29
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
7
Price history
13 points
This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed team reaches the 2026 FIFA World Cup final. If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed nation to advance to the 2026 FIFA World Cup final (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 FIFA World Cup final matchup has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
Spain has a 25.5% probability of reaching the 2026 FIFA World Cup final, reflecting moderate optimism given their historical performance and recent form. However, the competitive nature of modern tournaments and potential upsets reduce the likelihood of a final appearance.
Spain's strong youth development system and possession-based style could translate into tournament success, especially with a favorable draw. Recent performances under Luis de la Fuente suggest tactical adaptability, and their squad depth may sustain them through knockout rounds.
The expanded 48-team format increases the likelihood of early upsets, diluting Spain's chances of reaching the final. Injuries to key players or a tactical misstep in high-pressure matches could derail their campaign, as seen in past tournaments.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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