Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Unexpected early exits in knockout rounds
AI updated 7/1/2026, 1:15:18 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 50% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
25%
ORYN Consensus
24%
Signal Score
-0.5
Opportunity
0.4
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,209,127
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -50.0¢
Entry: 22-28
—
Resolution
18d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
8 points
This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which Spain is eliminated. If Spain wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If Spain is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by Spain based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
Spain has a 24% chance of being eliminated in the Semifinals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, indicating a moderate probability of advancing to the final stages but not winning the tournament. The market suggests Spain is more likely to progress beyond the Semifinals or exit earlier.
Spain's strong squad depth, tactical flexibility, and recent form under Luis de la Fuente support their ability to reach the final. Historical consistency in major tournaments and a favorable draw could propel them to the championship match.
Spain's defensive vulnerabilities, potential fatigue from a congested schedule, and tough semifinal opponents (e.g., Brazil, France) increase the risk of early elimination. Injuries to key players could further derail their campaign.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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