Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Historical underperformance of Asian teams in quarterfinals/semifinals
AI updated 6/27/2026, 3:15:23 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
2%
Signal Score
+0.1
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 5.0¢
Entry: 0-4
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
4 points
This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which South Korea is eliminated. If South Korea wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If South Korea is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by South Korea based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market reflects a low probability (1.5%) that South Korea will be eliminated in the World Cup Quarterfinals, indicating strong market confidence in their advancement beyond this stage. The resolution structure accounts for multiple scenarios, including tournament cancellation or disqualification.
South Korea's recent tournament performances (e.g., 2022 Round of 16 exit) and strong domestic league infrastructure suggest they are capable of reaching at least the Quarterfinals. Historical data shows Asian teams often underperform in early knockout stages, but South Korea's consistency may mitigate this risk.
Historical trends show Asian teams (e.g., Japan, Australia) frequently struggle in deep World Cup knockout stages, with only one Asian team (South Korea in 2002) reaching the semifinals. The high unpredictability of World Cup knockout matches could favor early elimination despite group-stage success.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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