Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Potential tournament cancellation or postponement affecting resolution
AI updated 6/28/2026, 7:15:42 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,218,028
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 0-4
—
Resolution
20d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
3 points
This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which South Africa is eliminated. If South Africa wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If South Africa is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by South Africa based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market assigns a 0.60% probability to South Africa being eliminated in the Semifinals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. This reflects an extremely low expectation of South Africa reaching the latter stages of the tournament.
South Africa could defy odds by advancing past group stages due to strong squad depth, tactical adaptability, and potential underdog momentum in knockout rounds. Historical performances in continental tournaments (e.g., AFCON) suggest resilience, and a favorable draw path might enable a semifinal berth.
South Africa faces structural challenges including inconsistent form, defensive vulnerabilities, and a highly competitive 2026 World Cup field. Weak recent FIFA rankings (post-2022) and limited preparation time may hinder progression beyond early rounds.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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