Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Declining institutional relevance of the PS
Calibrated 100% · raw 295% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/29/2026, 6:30:24 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
2%
ORYN Consensus
5%
Signal Score
+3.0
Opportunity
2.5
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,470,664
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 295.0¢
Entry: 0-5
—
Resolution
304d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
16 points
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
Ségolène Royal has a low 5.10% probability of advancing to the second round of the 2027 French presidential election due to her declining political influence and the fragmented left-wing landscape. While her name recognition remains, structural challenges in French politics and competition from younger candidates reduce her viability.
Royal could leverage nostalgia and residual name recognition to consolidate left-wing votes, particularly if the Socialist Party (PS) remains disorganized and fails to field a stronger candidate. A collapse in centrist or far-left support could also create an unexpected path to the runoff.
Royal’s political career has waned since her 2007 presidential bid, with the PS now marginalized and her personal brand weakened by past controversies. Younger candidates (e.g., Olivier Faure’s successors) and the rise of far-left figures (e.g., Jean-Luc Mélenchon) further diminish her chances.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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