Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Potential early knockout in group stage
AI updated 6/27/2026, 8:45:20 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 22% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
18%
ORYN Consensus
19%
Signal Score
+1.0
Opportunity
0.7
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 100.0¢
Entry: 14-20
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
11
Price history
5 points
This market will resolve in favor of the nation in CAF that advances to the latest stage in the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If there is a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the nation who recorded more total wins through all main tournament rounds of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the nation who scores more total goals through all main tournament rounds of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the nation who conceded fewer goals through all main tournament rounds of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to nation whose listed name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or it cannot be determined which nation advanced the furthest during the 2026 FIFA World Cup within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
Senegal is a strong contender among CAF nations for the 2026 World Cup, but competition from Morocco, Nigeria, and Egypt makes advancement beyond the group stage uncertain. Historical performance and recent form suggest Senegal could reach the knockout rounds, though deeper progression is less likely.
Senegal benefits from a favorable 2026 World Cup draw, strong squad depth with European-based players, and tactical cohesion under current management. A favorable group stage followed by a knockout upset could see them advance furthest among CAF nations, potentially to the Round of 16 or beyond.
Senegal faces stiff competition from Morocco (2022 semifinalists), Nigeria (consistent qualifiers), and Egypt (experienced core). Injuries to key players, defensive vulnerabilities, or a tough group draw could limit Senegal to the group stage, reducing their advancement potential.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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