Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Snap elections triggering cabinet reshuffles
Calibrated 100% · raw 990% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/2/2026, 6:03:42 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
10%
Signal Score
+9.9
Opportunity
9.4
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 990.0¢
Entry: 0-3
—
Resolution
132d
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market assessing Sébastien Lecornu's removal from office before 2027 shows an extremely low probability (0.10%), indicating strong confidence in his political stability. The criteria for resolution are strict, requiring permanent removal rather than temporary or caretaker status.
Lecornu's strong institutional ties within France's political establishment and President Macron's reliance on his expertise in defense and nuclear policy reduce the likelihood of his premature removal. His recent appointments suggest stability in his role.
Potential political instability in France, including Macron's weakening mandate or a snap election, could lead to a reshuffle where Lecornu is replaced. His alignment with Macron's unpopular policies may also increase pressure for his removal.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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