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© 2026 ORYN · Chant Technologies

Not financial advice. All forecasts carry inherent uncertainty.

HomeMarketsLiveTerminalAsk

Future Ask

Markets/Research/startups

Market Trading Terminal · RC10

Will Revolut's valuation hit (HIGH) $125B by July 31?

Global cockpit →
AI DecisionLiveProvidersGraphPaper & ShadowLearningReplayRiskTimelineChartsAnalysisExecution
ORYN says WAIT
Confidence 65%
ORYN AI
50%
Crowd
50%
Expected value
0.0%
Entry / exit
47-53 → 48-55¢
Risk
MEDIUM
  • ›Revolut's revenue and user growth metrics (e.g., monthly active users, transaction volumes)
  • ›Macroeconomic conditions (interest rates, inflation, stock market performance)
  • ›Regulatory developments (e.g., EU digital finance regulations, UK fintech policies)

Key risk: Volatility in private market valuations for fintech startups

Strongest counterpoint
  • ↔Revolut faces regulatory hurdles, slowing growth, or macroeconomic downturns (e.g., recession) that suppress valuation. Failure to IPO or a downround in fund...
Ask ORYN why Paper trade this thesis

AI updated 6/30/2026, 11:15:53 PM

Live intelligence

Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory

Live signal

Confidence Δ
65
Decision memory · 12 snapshots
Jul 1, 09:22 PMwait65%crowd 50%
Jul 9, 07:29 PMwait65%crowd 50%
Jul 9, 09:23 PMwait65%crowd 50%
Jul 12, 01:22 AMwait65%crowd 50%

Provider scores & strategy votes

Who contributed to this decision

Intelligence attribution

All providers →

Data providers

ProviderScoreAccuracyOn this market
fincept1—Active
mistral——Active
oryn_db——Active
polymarket——Active
news1—Global only
social1—Global only
economic_calendar1—Global only
trends1—Global only
google_trends1—Global only
pricing_ensemble021%Global only

Strategy votes

Cockpit →
Mean ReversionHold6500% confMEDIUM risk
LiquidityHold6500% confMEDIUM risk
Fincept MacroHold6500% confMEDIUM risk
News VelocityHold6500% confMEDIUM risk

Multi-model consensus

Multi-model consensus

Synthesizing

ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.

Signal Intelligence

Live syncMethodology →

Crowd Consensus

50%

ORYN Consensus

50%

Signal Score

0.0

Opportunity

0.0

Delta 0%% confidence convictionObservatory →

Knowledge graph

Related markets and connected predictions

No graph relationships indexed for this market yet. Explore Future Graph →

Paper & shadow

Simulated execution for this market

Paper engine

No paper signals for this market in the current cycle.

Paper monitoring →

Shadow execution

Quality score

49/100

Fill rate

100%

Executions

125

Avg slippage

4486 bps

Open positions

0

Latency

565ms

Shadow dashboard →

Learning & calibration

Platform-wide model improvement

Learning loop

Events

12,367,148

Trades learned

125

Strategies

5

Providers scored

9

Calibration

Brier score

0.000

Cal. error

0.000

ECE

0.000

Global multiplier

1.00

Learning report →

Replay

Counterfactual strategy simulations

No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →

Risk & execution readiness

Risk

MEDIUM

EV 0.0¢

Entry: 47-53

Liquidity

—

Execution readiness

Paper edge✓
Live enabled—
Signer ready—

Timeline

Resolution

Past

Decision snapshots

12

Price history

1 points

Resolution

Resolution date

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Revolut's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on August 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on August 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company’s public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company’s primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company’s total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-70f3c3d1-565b-491a-83df-54d0c8b08186/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

startupsglobalrevolutvaluationfintechprivate-marketsSource: polymarket

Probability history

Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers

Crowd-impliedORYN AI fair value (over time) AI decision

AI analysis

The market on Revolut's valuation reaching $125B by July 31, 2026, is currently at 50.00%, indicating balanced uncertainty. The outcome hinges on Revolut's growth trajectory, macroeconomic conditions, and potential IPO timing, all of which are highly speculative at this stage.

Bull Case

Revolut achieves a $125B valuation by leveraging strong revenue growth, expansion into new markets (e.g., Asia-Pacific), and successful monetization of its fintech ecosystem. A high-profile IPO or secondary funding round in a favorable market climate could push valuations beyond $125B.

Bear Case

Revolut faces regulatory hurdles, slowing growth, or macroeconomic downturns (e.g., recession) that suppress valuation. Failure to IPO or a downround in funding could cap valuation below $125B. Geopolitical risks in key markets (e.g., India, China) may also dampen investor appetite.

Fincept analytics

Regime: — · Confidence: 0%

Execution & venues

Trade links and live readiness

Act on Conviction

Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.

ORYN does not hold funds or execute trades. You will be redirected to a third-party regulated venue.

Community

No comments yet.

50%

Crowd

50%

AI

Confidence 65%

Volume: —

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Revolut's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and July 31, 202…

Live syncpolymarket · ORYN AI65% confidenceMethodology →

Ask ORYN About This Market

Future Ask

Will Revolut's valuation hit (HIGH) $125B by July 31?

Act on conviction through ORYN's execution layer.

Take Position

Paper mode · mapping confidence checked at execution

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