Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Match cancellation or delay beyond resolution criteria
Calibrated 100% · raw 2250% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/1/2026, 5:46:25 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
51%
ORYN Consensus
74%
Signal Score
+22.5
Opportunity
18.4
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 2250.0¢
Entry: 48-54
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
11
Price history
55 points
This market refers to the tennis match between Marvin Moeller and Marat Sharipov in the Troyes, originally scheduled for July 2, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Marvin Moeller' if Marvin Moeller advances against Marat Sharipov. This market will resolve to 'Marat Sharipov' if Marat Sharipov advances against Marvin Moeller. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market favors Marvin Moeller with a 73.50% probability to advance against Marat Sharipov in their Troyes tennis match on July 2, 2026. The market is based on ATP Tour data and credible reporting, with clear resolution criteria for various match outcomes.
Marvin Moeller is favored due to potential form, ranking, or head-to-head advantages over Marat Sharipov. External factors like Sharipov's recent injuries or Moeller's stronger grass-court performance could further support this outcome.
Marat Sharipov may be underestimated in this market, especially if he has a history of upsetting higher-ranked opponents or if Moeller faces unexpected challenges like fatigue or tactical weaknesses in their matchup.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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