Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Unpredictability of DOTA 2 game durations due to randomness in drafts and early-game dynamics
AI updated 7/1/2026, 6:01:03 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 45% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,553,845
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
Open-ended
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the team that wins the single shortest game played at the 2026 EWC DOTA 2, held July 7 – July 19, 2026. "Shortest" is determined by the in-game duration of each completed game, as recorded on the official post-game result and logged by the resolution source (the clock running from game start to the destruction of the losing team's Ancient / game end). All completed games across the entire tournament count, including the Group stage, Survival stage and Playoffs. A game that is remade or restarted before completion does not count; only a completed, officially recorded game counts. This market resolves to the team that won the game with the lowest recorded in-game duration across the tournament. If the two shortest games share the identical recorded duration, the market resolves to the team that won the game that occurred earlier in the tournament schedule. If EWC DOTA 2026 is cancelled, or is postponed such that the tournament is not completed and final game-duration data is not available by August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be Dotabuff(https://www.dotabuff.com). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market for 'Will PTime Win the Shortest Game at EWC 2026?' is currently evenly split at 50%, reflecting high uncertainty due to the unpredictable nature of DOTA 2 game durations and the tournament's long-term outcomes. PTime's historical performance in short games is not a dominant factor, given the randomness of game lengths in competitive play.
PTime has a strong chance if they employ hyper-aggressive strategies that force quick wins, particularly in early rounds where opponents are less prepared. Their experience in high-pressure environments and ability to capitalize on early-game advantages could lead to the shortest recorded match. Additionally, if the tournament features a high number of remakes or early losses, PTime's odds may improve as they avoid extended games.
PTime may struggle to secure the shortest game if the tournament features a high number of drawn-out, late-game victories, where game duration is prolonged by stalemates or late comebacks. Their reliance on team coordination and mid-to-late game dominance could work against them in a metric focused solely on speed. Randomness in matchups and opponent playstyles may also dilute their chances.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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