Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Malaysian political instability affecting coalition strategies
AI updated 7/1/2026, 7:45:33 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 44% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
13%
ORYN Consensus
13%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,569,173
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
HIGH
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 10-16
—
Resolution
9d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
General elections to elect the Johor State Legislative Assembly are scheduled to take place on July 11, 2026. This market will resolve to the political coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Johor State Legislative Assembly as a result of this election. If voting in the specified election does not occur, or if the results of the specified election are not known definitively, by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. A representative will count towards the coalition they under which he or she runs in the specified election, as indicated by official information from the Election Commission of Malaysia (SPR) (https://mysprsemak.spr.gov.my/). This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named coalition. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official information from the Malaysia and Johor governments, including the Election Commission of Malaysia (SPR) (https://mysprsemak.spr.gov.my/).
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market reflects low confidence (12.50%) in the Philippines winning the 2026 Johor general elections. The outcome hinges on Malaysian domestic politics, with PH's viability contingent on broader electoral trends and coalition strategies in Johor.
PH could gain traction in Johor if its coalition partners (e.g., Pakatan Harapan) expand their influence in Peninsular Malaysia, leveraging anti-incumbent sentiment or policy appeals. A strong PH performance in Johor would signal broader electoral gains for the coalition in Malaysia.
PH faces structural disadvantages in Johor, where Barisan Nasional (BN) and Perikatan Nasional (PN) dominate. Johor’s conservative electorate and BN’s entrenched support make a PH victory unlikely without unforeseen shifts in Malaysian politics.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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