Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Event cancellation or technical failure during live broadcast
AI updated 6/26/2026, 8:00:56 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
45%
ORYN Consensus
45%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 42-48
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
9
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve based on the next earnings announcement of Nike currently scheduled to take place on Jun 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If this event is definitely cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be audio of the event. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market reflects a near-even split on whether Nike will mention 'tariff' during its earnings call on June 30, 2026, with a 45% probability assigned to the event occurring. The resolution hinges on the live audio transcript of the call, with no qualifying event resulting in a 'No' resolution.
Nike may reference tariffs due to supply chain disruptions in Asia-Pacific, particularly if geopolitical tensions (e.g., U.S.-China trade policies) escalate, forcing the company to address cost pressures or operational risks. Additionally, if tariff-related legislation is pending or recently enacted, executives might acknowledge its potential impact on future guidance.
Nike could avoid mentioning tariffs if the topic is deemed irrelevant or if the company has successfully mitigated supply chain risks through diversification or hedging strategies. A stable trade environment or muted policy changes might render the term unnecessary in earnings discussions.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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