Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Unexpected injuries to key players before or during the tournament
AI updated 6/28/2026, 3:15:26 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
11%
ORYN Consensus
11%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
965,788
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 8-14
—
Resolution
21d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
16 points
This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which Netherlands is eliminated. If Netherlands wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If Netherlands is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by Netherlands based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market assigns a 10.50% probability that the Netherlands will be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, indicating a low expectation of early exit. Historical performance and recent form suggest the Netherlands is more likely to advance beyond this stage.
The Netherlands enters the tournament as a top-ranked team with a strong squad, including experienced players and emerging talents. Their historical performance in major tournaments (e.g., 2014 World Cup semifinalists) and a favorable draw could see them progress deep into the competition.
The Netherlands faces a tough draw in the Round of 16 against a historically strong opponent, leading to elimination. Potential squad weaknesses, injuries to key players, or tactical mismatches could result in an early exit despite their overall strength.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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