Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Algorithm updates reducing organic reach
Calibrated 100% · raw 8415% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/2/2026, 8:45:30 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 28% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
85%
Signal Score
+84.2
Opportunity
63.1
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,568,473
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 8415.0¢
Entry: 0-4
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve according to the number of views the latest YouTube video posted by MrBeast gets in the first 120 hours after being posted. This market may not resolve until the 120 hours are complete, regardless of whether a strike is reached earlier. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market is MrBeast's YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video. Note: This market refers to the video titled "Which Stranger Would You Chain Yourself To For $250,000?", which can be found here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iYlODtkyw_I. Shorts, previews, or other videos released other than the referenced video will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market predicts an 85% probability that MrBeast's latest video will underperform its historical 5-day view benchmark of 52 million views. This reflects skepticism about sustained engagement compared to past viral content.
MrBeast's established content formula (high-stakes challenges, philanthropy, and viral hooks) could drive views beyond 52 million in 5 days, as seen with past videos like 'Squid Game in Real Life' (100M+ in 4 days). Algorithm favorability and cross-platform sharing may amplify reach.
Viewership fatigue or saturation could cap performance below 52M, given MrBeast's recent videos averaging ~50M views in 5 days. Algorithm changes, audience burnout, or niche appeal of this specific challenge may limit scalability.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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