Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Uncertainty around video posting timeline (resolution deadline: July 31, 2026)
Calibrated 100% · raw 350% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/30/2026, 8:01:07 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 22% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
42%
ORYN Consensus
38%
Signal Score
-3.5
Opportunity
2.6
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -300.0¢
Entry: 38-44
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
2
Price history
90 points
MrBeast Gaming releases videos on https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeastGaming. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mr Beast says the listed term during the next video he releases on his gaming channel on YouTube. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If no such video is posted by MrBeast by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the released video from (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeastGaming). Note: This market refers to MrBeast's next gaming video posted. Shorts, previews, or other videos released other than the referenced video will not be considered. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market reflects a 41% probability that MrBeast will say 'Map' in his next gaming YouTube video, with resolution contingent on a qualifying video posted by July 31, 2026. The outcome hinges on MrBeast's spontaneous or scripted use of colloquial gaming terminology.
MrBeast has a history of incorporating trending gaming slang (e.g., 'noob,' 'gg') into his videos for comedic or stylistic effect, increasing the likelihood of saying 'Map.' His gaming content often features multiplayer games (e.g., Minecraft, Fortnite) where 'Map' is a common term. The 41% probability suggests moderate but plausible odds.
MrBeast's gaming videos are typically scripted or loosely structured, reducing the chance of spontaneous term usage. His content focuses more on challenges and reactions than technical gaming jargon. Historical data shows low frequency of the term 'Map' in his videos, favoring a 'No' resolution.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
ORYN does not hold funds or execute trades. You will be redirected to a third-party regulated venue.
No comments yet.
