Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Low prior probability of term usage in non-dedicated videos
AI updated 6/27/2026, 6:45:15 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 22% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
32%
ORYN Consensus
32%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 29-35
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
1 points
MrBeast releases videos on https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mr Beast says the listed term during the next video he releases on YouTube. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If clips of old videos or prerecorded clips are aired where people are speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution. AI-generated audio or video will count toward this market's resolution. Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). If no such video is posted by MrBeast by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the released video from (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast). Note: This market refers to MrBeast's next video posted. Shorts, previews, or other videos released other than the referenced video will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market suggests a low likelihood (32%) that MrBeast will mention the term 'Feastables' in his next YouTube video, given his recent content focus and prior usage patterns. The resolution hinges on a single video with strict inclusion criteria, creating a binary outcome with no partial credit.
MrBeast may prioritize promoting Feastables in his next video due to a potential rebranding push or partnership renewal, especially if the term aligns with his recent sponsorships or merch lines. His history of integrating brand terms (e.g., 'Shop MrBeast') suggests he could organically include 'Feastables' in a high-energy segment, such as a challenge or giveaway.
MrBeast’s next video may focus on non-sponsored content, such as a charity event or gaming stream, where 'Feastables' is irrelevant to the narrative. His avoidance of the term in recent videos (outside of dedicated Feastables content) reduces the probability of an unprompted mention, especially given the strict resolution rules.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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