Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: No qualifying video by July 31, 2026
Calibrated 100% · raw 300% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/29/2026, 7:17:48 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 22% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
42%
ORYN Consensus
45%
Signal Score
+3.0
Opportunity
2.5
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 300.0¢
Entry: 39-45
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
6
Price history
90 points
MrBeast Gaming releases videos on https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeastGaming. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mr Beast says the listed term during the next video he releases on his gaming channel on YouTube. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If no such video is posted by MrBeast by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the released video from (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeastGaming). Note: This market refers to MrBeast's next gaming video posted. Shorts, previews, or other videos released other than the referenced video will not be considered. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market suggests a near-even probability (45%) that MrBeast will say 'Darius' in his next gaming YouTube video. The resolution hinges on a single video's content, with no qualifying event resolving to 'No'.
MrBeast's gaming videos often feature diverse characters and references, increasing the likelihood of mentioning 'Darius' (a common gaming term). His unpredictable style may lead to spontaneous inclusion of the term.
MrBeast's next gaming video may focus on specific games or topics where 'Darius' is irrelevant. His content often avoids niche gaming terms, reducing the chance of inclusion.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
ORYN does not hold funds or execute trades. You will be redirected to a third-party regulated venue.
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