Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Injuries to critical players (e.g., Hakim Ziyech, Achraf Hakimi)
AI updated 6/29/2026, 1:30:34 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
61%
ORYN Consensus
61%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,565,459
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 57-64
—
Resolution
20d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
3 points
This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which Morocco is eliminated. If Morocco wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If Morocco is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by Morocco based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market currently prices a 60.5% probability that Morocco will be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with a 39.5% chance of advancing further or winning the tournament. Morocco's strong 2022 performance and recent form suggest a non-trivial chance of deep progression.
Morocco's recent success, including a historic 2022 World Cup run where they reached the semifinals, demonstrates their ability to compete at the highest level. Their squad depth, tactical flexibility, and experience under coach Walid Regragui provide a foundation to navigate the expanded 2026 tournament format and potentially advance beyond the Round of 32.
Morocco's group stage in 2026 could feature stronger opponents compared to 2022, increasing the risk of early elimination. Injuries to key players, fatigue from a congested domestic calendar, or tactical mismatches could hinder their progression, leading to a Round of 32 exit.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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