Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Delayed finalization of box office data (reliance on The Numbers and Box Office Mojo)
AI updated 6/30/2026, 2:00:28 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 50% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
54%
ORYN Consensus
54%
Signal Score
+0.5
Opportunity
0.4
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,746,792
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 50.0¢
Entry: 50-57
—
Resolution
6d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
4 points
This market will resolve according to how much "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 5-day opening weekend (July 1 - July 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by July 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market predicts a 54% probability that 'Minions & Monsters' will gross less than $68M domestically during its 5-day opening weekend (July 1-5). This reflects moderate uncertainty, with expectations skewed slightly toward underperformance relative to the threshold.
Strong pre-release hype, proven franchise appeal (Minions), favorable summer release timing, and potential for extended box office legs could drive weekend gross above $68M. Comparable animated films like 'Despicable Me 4' (2024) or 'The Super Mario Bros. Movie' (2023) may set a high benchmark.
Market skepticism may stem from franchise fatigue, competition from other summer blockbusters, or tepid critical reception. If word-of-mouth or reviews underperform, the opening weekend could disappoint, falling below $68M. Historical data for similar films (e.g., 'Minions: The Rise of Gru' at $107M in 2022) suggests volatility.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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