Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Inconsistent recent tournament performances
AI updated 6/27/2026, 9:45:29 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 22% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
15%
ORYN Consensus
14%
Signal Score
-1.0
Opportunity
0.7
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -100.0¢
Entry: 12-18
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
5
Price history
5 points
This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which Mexico is eliminated. If Mexico wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If Mexico is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by Mexico based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market indicates a low probability (14%) that Mexico will be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, suggesting higher expectations for their advancement. Historical performance and recent form support a moderate bullish outlook, but structural challenges in CONCACAF and potential tournament dynamics introduce risks.
Mexico has a strong historical record in World Cup knockout stages, reaching the Round of 16 in 2018 and 2022, and frequently advancing past group stages. The 2026 tournament features an expanded format (48 teams), which may dilute competition strength, increasing Mexico's chances of deeper advancement. Recent managerial stability under Tata Martino and a talented squad with European-based players (e.g., Edson Álvarez, Hirving Lozano) further bolster their prospects.
Mexico's recent form in major tournaments is inconsistent, with early exits in the 2021 Gold Cup and poor performances in the 2022 World Cup qualifiers. The expanded 2026 field may introduce stronger CONCACAF opponents (e.g., USA, Canada) in earlier rounds, increasing elimination risks. Defensive vulnerabilities and over-reliance on individual brilliance (e.g., Chicharito's absence) could hinder deep tournament runs.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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