Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Injuries to key players during the tournament
AI updated 6/27/2026, 12:45:20 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 22% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
4%
ORYN Consensus
3%
Signal Score
-0.1
Opportunity
0.1
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV -10.0¢
Entry: 1-7
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
9
Price history
50 points
This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which Mexico is eliminated. If Mexico wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If Mexico is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by Mexico based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market indicates a low probability (3.45%) that Mexico will be eliminated in the final of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The market suggests Mexico is more likely to progress beyond the group stage but faces significant challenges to reach the final.
Mexico could leverage home advantage in the 2026 World Cup (co-hosted with Canada and the U.S.) to advance deep into the tournament. Strong performances in recent CONCACAF qualifiers and a talented squad, including young prospects, support a bullish outlook for reaching the final.
Mexico's historical struggles in knockout stages (e.g., 2018 Round of 16 exit) and inconsistent form in recent tournaments raise doubts about their ability to reach the final. External factors like injuries, tactical mismatches, or referee decisions could further hinder their progress.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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