This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which Mexico is eliminated. If Mexico wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If Mexico is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by Mexico based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Key risk: Injuries to key players during the tournament
AI updated 6/27/2026, 12:45:20 AM
This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which Mexico is eliminated. If Mexico wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If Mexico is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by Mexico based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd Consensus
4%
ORYN Consensus
3%
Signal Score
-0.6
Opportunity
0.4
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The prediction market indicates a low probability (3.45%) that Mexico will be eliminated in the final of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The market suggests Mexico is more likely to progress beyond the group stage but faces significant challenges to reach the final.
Mexico could leverage home advantage in the 2026 World Cup (co-hosted with Canada and the U.S.) to advance deep into the tournament. Strong performances in recent CONCACAF qualifiers and a talented squad, including young prospects, support a bullish outlook for reaching the final.
Mexico's historical struggles in knockout stages (e.g., 2018 Round of 16 exit) and inconsistent form in recent tournaments raise doubts about their ability to reach the final. External factors like injuries, tactical mismatches, or referee decisions could further hinder their progress.
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Will Mexico be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 4.1% while ORYN AI estimates 3.5%.
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