Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Draft eligibility changes or late-season underperformance
Calibrated 100% · raw 4465% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/26/2026, 4:15:59 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 23% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
47%
ORYN Consensus
2%
Signal Score
-44.6
Opportunity
33.5
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -4465.0¢
Entry: 44-50
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
5
Price history
33 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player is drafted with the overall pick 1-10 in the first round of the 2026 NHL Draft. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If the 2026 NHL Draft is canceled or not completed by July 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NHL. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market assigns a low 1.85% probability to Maddox Dagenais being drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 NHL Draft. This reflects significant uncertainty and long odds for the player's selection in that range.
Dagenais could be selected in the top 10 if he demonstrates elite performance in the 2025-26 season, such as leading his team in scoring or winning major junior awards, and gains elite prospect ranking from NHL scouts.
The market likely reflects concerns about Dagenais' draft stock, potential injuries, or weaker-than-expected performance in the lead-up to the draft, making a top-10 selection improbable.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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