Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Injury or suspension during the tournament
AI updated 6/28/2026, 10:00:22 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
37%
ORYN Consensus
38%
Signal Score
+1.0
Opportunity
0.7
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,076,166
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 100.0¢
Entry: 34-40
—
Resolution
21d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
15 points
This market will resolve to the player who records the most goal contributions combined through all rounds of the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition. For the purpose of this market, a goal contribution is defined exclusively as the number of combined goals and assists a player has recorded. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by FIFA World Cup rules. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player who scored more goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
Kylian Mbappé is a leading candidate for most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup due to his elite scoring and assist record, but competition from emerging talents and established stars may dilute his market share.
Mbappé's consistent performance in major tournaments (e.g., World Cup 2022 runner-up with 8 goal contributions) and France's strong squad depth suggest he could replicate or surpass his output, particularly if he plays a central role in attack.
Injury risks, tactical shifts in France's lineup, or the emergence of younger forwards (e.g., Warren Zaïre-Emery, Eduardo Camavinga) could reduce Mbappé's goal contributions, while other nations (e.g., Argentina, Brazil) may field players with higher assist-to-goal ratios.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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