Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Legal disqualification or ineligibility due to pending cases
AI updated 6/29/2026, 10:00:18 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
0%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,513,574
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 0-3
—
Resolution
96d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
12 points
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market assigns a 0.20% probability that Jair Bolsonaro will finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. This exceptionally low probability suggests minimal market confidence in Bolsonaro securing a top-two finish, likely due to his polarizing legacy, legal challenges, and shifting political dynamics in Brazil.
Bolsonaro's strong base of loyal supporters, particularly in conservative and evangelical demographics, could propel him to a second-place finish if he consolidates right-wing and anti-establishment votes. A fragmented opposition field or economic dissatisfaction might also benefit his candidacy, enabling him to outperform expectations.
Bolsonaro faces significant legal and political headwinds, including ongoing investigations and his disqualification from running in 2022, which could deter voters. Additionally, his controversial legacy, high polarization, and the rise of centrist or Lula-aligned candidates may limit his appeal, pushing him to third or lower.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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