Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: climate_change_induced_weather_variability
Calibrated 100% · raw 1900% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/1/2026, 9:15:19 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 23% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
47%
ORYN Consensus
28%
Signal Score
-19.0
Opportunity
14.8
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -1900.0¢
Entry: 44-50
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
60 points
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any precipitation is recorded at the specified weather station on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in the Boston Area on July 4, 2026 according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for the specified date when the “Daily data for a month” for “Boston Area” is selected with the variable set to “Precipitation” at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=box link once that figure is finalized for the specified date. Trace rain, specified by a “T” in the named column, will not qualify toward a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market’s timeframe will not be considered for this market’s resolution. If the relevant data is not made available by July 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for rain in Boston on July 4, 2026, currently has a 27.50% probability of precipitation. Historical NOAA data and seasonal trends suggest low likelihood, but climate variability introduces uncertainty.
Unseasonable weather patterns, such as a late-season nor'easter or tropical moisture surge, could increase precipitation probability. Elevated humidity or atmospheric instability may also elevate the chance of rain.
July is typically dry in Boston, with historically low precipitation averages. Persistent high-pressure systems or drought conditions would suppress rainfall, aligning with the low current probability.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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