This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which Iran is eliminated. If Iran wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If Iran is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by Iran based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Key risk: Geopolitical tensions affecting player morale or FIFA sanctions
AI updated 6/28/2026, 12:15:33 AM
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which Iran is eliminated. If Iran wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If Iran is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by Iran based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
0%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The probability of Iran winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup is extremely low at 0.15%, reflecting historical performance, competitive group stage, and structural challenges in football development.
Iran could win the World Cup if they overcome traditional powerhouses through tactical brilliance, key player breakthroughs (e.g., Sardar Azmoun, Mehdi Taremi), and favorable draw dynamics in the group and knockout stages.
Iran’s path is constrained by limited infrastructure, financial disparities, and strong competition in Asia and globally, making elimination in the group stage or early knockout rounds highly probable.
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Will Iran win the World Cup? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 0.2% while ORYN AI estimates 0.2%.
ORYN aggregates forecasting intelligence across Asia-focused categories including crypto, AI, cricket, startups, and global events.
