Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Tournament format changes (48 teams) increasing competition intensity
AI updated 6/27/2026, 11:00:14 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 22% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
0%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 0-3
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
9
Price history
4 points
This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which Iran is eliminated. If Iran wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If Iran is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by Iran based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market reflects an extremely low probability (0.25%) of Iran being eliminated in the semifinals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, indicating near-certainty of elimination before that stage or a title win. Historical performance and group-stage dynamics heavily favor this outcome.
Iran could defy odds by advancing past the group stage and potentially the Round of 16, leveraging tactical discipline and individual talent to reach the semifinals, especially if key opponents underperform or injuries disrupt other teams.
Iran’s historical struggles in World Cup knockout stages (0 wins in 3 appearances) and the tournament’s expanded format (48 teams) make early elimination (Group Stage or Round of 16) the most likely outcome, with semifinal advancement highly improbable.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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