This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which Iran is eliminated. If Iran wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If Iran is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by Iran based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Key risk: Tournament format changes (48 teams) increasing competition intensity
AI updated 6/27/2026, 11:00:14 PM
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which Iran is eliminated. If Iran wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If Iran is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by Iran based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
0%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market reflects an extremely low probability (0.25%) of Iran being eliminated in the semifinals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, indicating near-certainty of elimination before that stage or a title win. Historical performance and group-stage dynamics heavily favor this outcome.
Iran could defy odds by advancing past the group stage and potentially the Round of 16, leveraging tactical discipline and individual talent to reach the semifinals, especially if key opponents underperform or injuries disrupt other teams.
Iran’s historical struggles in World Cup knockout stages (0 wins in 3 appearances) and the tournament’s expanded format (48 teams) make early elimination (Group Stage or Round of 16) the most likely outcome, with semifinal advancement highly improbable.
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Will Iran be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 0.3% while ORYN AI estimates 0.3%.
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